At first glance, global airfreight markets appear calm. Spot rates have drifted lower year-on-year, cargo volumes are growing modestly, and airlines report broadly stable load factors. For many shippers, that combination suggests a market with plenty of available space.
The reality, however, is far more complex. Beneath relatively flat global averages lies a structurally tight air cargo system in which capacity is unevenly distributed, increasingly inflexible, and heavily dependent on passenger networks. As the industry moves into 2026, this disconnect between price signals and physical capacity is becoming one of the defining features of the market.
The misleading comfort of average rates
Global spot airfreight rates fell for much of 2025, declining for several consecutive months and ending the year roughly three percent below prior-year levels. These numbers have fed a perception that capacity has loosened following the post-pandemic normalisation.
Yet averages conceal more than they reveal. By late 2025, spot rates on key Asia–Europe lanes began climbing again, with ex-China pricing hitting the highest levels of the year. Other routes, including intra-Asia and Asia–Middle East & Africa, also showed signs of tightening even as transatlantic lanes softened.
This divergence highlights a critical reality: airfreight pricing is increasingly lane-specific. Capacity may appear sufficient globally, but it is often unavailable where demand is strongest or most time-sensitive.
Freighters down, bellies up
The most significant shift in air cargo capacity is not its volume, but its composition.
Dedicated freighter capacity declined by roughly seven percent year-on-year in 2025, continuing a downward trend that began in early spring. In contrast, passenger aircraft belly-hold capacity rose about five percent year-on-year and now accounts for approximately two-thirds of global air cargo capacity.
While the recovery of passenger flying has restored much-needed lift to the market, it has also introduced new constraints. Belly capacity is governed by passenger schedules, aircraft types, and route economics that do not necessarily align with cargo demand. It is also more seasonal, less flexible, and less suitable for certain types of shipments, including oversized, heavy, or hazardous goods.
The decline in freighter availability matters because freighters provide the elasticity that allows the air cargo system to absorb shocks. Without them, the market has far less ability to respond to sudden demand surges, disruptions, or rerouted trade flows.
Stable load factors, limited slack
Cargo load factors remained broadly stable through 2025, signaling that airlines have been disciplined in matching capacity growth to demand. From a financial perspective, this is a positive development, supporting yields and avoiding destructive overcapacity.
Operationally, however, stable load factors also imply limited spare capacity. When aircraft are consistently well filled, even small disruptions—weather events, labor issues, airspace closures, or regulatory delays—can quickly cascade into congestion and delays.
This dynamic helps explain why many shippers report difficulty securing space on certain routes despite benign-looking rate indices. The system is running efficiently, but close to its limits.
Lane-specific tightness is the new normal
The most acute tightness is concentrated on Asia-origin lanes. Outbound volumes from Asia-Pacific grew at double-digit rates on several corridors in late 2025, driven by electronics, AI components, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce. At the same time, freighter reductions and uneven belly recovery have constrained available lift.
Europe, by contrast, has seen weaker outbound demand and softer pricing, reflecting manufacturing contraction and slower export orders. North America sits somewhere in between, with import volumes easing after the peak season while exports remain relatively firm.
For shippers operating across multiple regions, this patchwork market complicates planning. A rate decline on one lane does not translate into easier access to capacity elsewhere, and network imbalances are becoming more pronounced.
Carrier strategy adds another layer of uncertainty
Airlines are approaching 2026 with caution. While industry financial outlooks point to stable margins and modest revenue growth, carriers remain reluctant to add freighters aggressively after the volatility of recent years. Fleet decisions are increasingly shaped by long-term sustainability goals, capital discipline, and uncertainty around future demand patterns.
Speculation around potential changes in freighter ownership—such as the reported exploration of a sale of a major global freighter operator—has further underscored the fragility of the freighter segment. Any consolidation or capacity rationalisation could have outsized effects on certain trade lanes.
What shippers should watch
As the industry moves into the new year, shippers should resist the temptation to equate flat rates with abundant capacity. More meaningful indicators include:
- Capacity allocation by lane and aircraft type
- Changes in freighter deployment and charter availability
- Load factor trends on specific corridors
- Regulatory and geopolitical events that could redirect flows
In a market defined by structural tightness rather than cyclical shortage, access to capacity will matter more than price alone. The airfreight market of 2026 may look calm on the surface, but beneath it lies a system with little room to absorb surprises.
