• North American air cargo is entering a structural realignment in 2026, driven increasingly by geopolitics, trade policy, and shifting economic alliances rather than purely by rates or transit times, forcing carriers to adapt to more fragmented and fluid trade flows.
• Nearshoring is materially reshaping regional demand, particularly through increased northbound volumes from Mexico, while transpacific and Latin American networks are being rebalanced through targeted route additions, capacity growth, and greater reliance on flexible, decentralised gateways.
• To operate effectively amid labour constraints and infrastructure pressures, carriers such as Air Canada Cargo are investing in network resilience, analytics, fleet modernisation, cold-chain infrastructure, and digital capabilities, positioning adaptability and signal-driven decision-making as core competitive advantages.

As 2026 gets underway, the air cargo landscape in North America is undergoing a structural shift — one shaped less by rates and transit times, and more by geopolitics, trade policy, and shifting economic alliances. 

“Supply chain decisions are being made not just on traditional cost or speed factors,” says Matthieu Casey, Managing Director, Commercial at Air Canada Cargo, “but also in response to evolving geopolitical realities and regulatory adjustments.” 

The long-established cargo flows that once defined the transpacific and intra-Americas corridors are no longer guaranteed. “One of the most notable trends,” Casey adds, “is how trade flows are increasingly influenced by various spheres of economic influence. These spheres reflect proximity and preferred alignment with major global players such as the United States and China, as well as partnerships with neutral trading entities.” 

For air cargo carriers, this means more than just adjusting a few routes — it’s about adapting to a more fragmented and fluid global trade environment, with clear regional winners and losers. 

Mexico moves closer

Few places illustrate that shift more clearly than Mexico. After years of headlines and forecasts, nearshoring is now having a tangible effect on airfreight patterns, especially on northbound flows into the United States and Canada. 

“Nearshoring has increased demand for northbound shipments,” says Casey. “We’re meeting this need with multiple daily flights from several locations in Mexico. We also offer flexible, on-demand flights from Mexico, enabling us to deliver customised solutions when our customers face urgent situations.” 

While some of this volume may have previously moved by ocean or overland, the demand for faster, more responsive solutions — particularly for high-value or time-sensitive goods — is giving airfreight a stronger foothold. For carriers, the trend also introduces new network challenges, as they adapt to more decentralised supply chains and the growing importance of southern gateways. 

Asia–North America finds a new balance 

While nearshoring is changing intra-regional flows, the transpacific corridor remains central — though it too is being reshaped. 

“Transpacific trade has rebounded, increasing Asia–North America flows,” Casey notes. In response, Air Canada Cargo has added routes to Singapore and Manila, extended year-round service to Bangkok, and boosted capacity to key Chinese markets including Shanghai and Beijing. New non-stop connections now link Seoul to Montréal and Osaka to Toronto. The carrier also added a Madrid–Montréal flight, and now operates over 100 weekly flights between Canada and the Asia-Pacific region. 

“We have already seen trade flows starting to realign following recent policy announcements,” he says. “However, our network of self-handled stations across North America and beyond (YUL, YYZ, YVR, ORD, LHR, FRA), and strong interline/trucking integrations have helped us adapt to these shifts.” 

It’s not just Asia–North America either. The carrier has also been building out its Latin American coverage, adding destinations like Guatemala City, Rio de Janeiro, and Cartagena — reflecting broader diversification strategies by exporters and manufacturers. 

Adapting to constraints 

All of this change has played out against a difficult operational backdrop. Labor shortages, capacity imbalances, and infrastructure bottlenecks were a feature of 2025 — and they tested the limits of agility across the sector. 

“For us, the focus is always, and has always been, on building a robust network that allows us to stay adaptable to the ever-changing trade landscape,” says Casey. “By building strong foundations, we’re able to adapt and adjust as needed to fast-changing constraints beyond our control.” 

That adaptability is backed by investment in scheduling and analytics. The result, according to Casey, was a 36 percent improvement in freighter on-time performance (OTP) and a 65 percent reduction in delay minutes last year. “We have a 24/7 Network Support team that monitors over 90 percent of cargo connections, and employs a dedicated Traffic Management team to optimise traffic flows up to 48 hours pre‑departure,” he says. 

Investing in what comes next 

Behind the scenes, a quiet but deliberate overhaul of infrastructure, technology, and fleet is underway — not just at Air Canada Cargo, but across the wider market. For 2026, Casey outlines a set of investment priorities designed to give the carrier a strategic edge. 

“Our priorities for 2026 involve improving our ability to source and read market signals and turn them into actionable impacts,” he explains. “As well as a focus on long-term investments in our fleet modernisation plan, and infrastructure investments such as our ongoing enhancements at our YYZ hub facility.” 

The broader fleet plan — including more than 90 new aircraft over three years — brings a mix of A220s, 787-10s, and A321XLRs into service, offering both fuel efficiency gains and increased flexibility for cargo operations. 

The cold chain is also expanding, with the recent addition of a 900-square-foot temperature-controlled facility at London Heathrow, complementing the 22,000-sq ft facility at Toronto Pearson. Pharmaceutical and perishable volumes surged in 2025, driven by healthcare demand and tighter temperature compliance. “Air Canada Cargo supported this trend through CEIV Pharma certification and infrastructure expansion,” Casey says. 

Digital investment continues as well. “We continue to invest in digitalisation, with investment in AI labs (Capacity Forecasting, Dynamic Pricing, Acceptance), Cloud-based Customer Service integrated with CRM, and the Cargo Integration Platform to scale direct connections and marketplace reach.” 

As geopolitical and regulatory conditions continue to evolve, so too will the cargo flows that define North American airfreight. For carriers, this means constant recalibration — not just of networks, but of capabilities, partnerships, and priorities. 

“Our capacity to swiftly respond to evolving logistics needs will support our success this year,” says Casey, “and lay the groundwork for continued innovation and strategic growth in the future.”